Anyone Listening

by Tom Licata

Are any of Vermont’s Gubernatorial candidates – or for that matter, any Vermont candidate running for this coming November’s election - really listening?

Do they really understand?

In response to a blistering attack on his own Republican Party, “Four Deformations of the Apocalypse” (NYT op-ed, August 1), David Stockman, former director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan, said this in an August 2 interview with CNBC host Larry Kudlow:

“Let’s not think this is an abstract problem anymore.  For the long-run it’s a clear and present danger.  Do you realize, Larry, that in the last two years since the big upset in October 2008, money GDP, nominal GDP, is growing $4 billion a month and the debt has been growing at a $100 billion a month; 25 times faster.  Now, that is just unsustainable.  That is a serious threat to financial stability.”

Then,  earlier, on July 11, at the National Governors Association Meeting, Erskine Bowles, Co-Chairman of President Obama’s “Fiscal Commission” and former White House chief of staff to President Clinton, said this:

“I think it’s a fact that as a nation we face the most predictable economic crisis in our history…this debt is like a cancer.  It is truly going to destroy the country from within…and it is basic arithmetic. …

“Today, if you just look at the mandatory spending, which is principle (sic) Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security; it does consume 100% of the federal revenues. That does mean that every dollar we spend on homeland security, the military, defense, education, infrastructure, transportation; all borrowed, and one-half borrowed from foreign countries.”
 
I’ve done some of my own - more harrowing - calculations, to wit:
 
Since 1990, in 2009 inflation-adjusted dollars, federal debt has risen 155% compared to U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of just 54%.
This  means that claims on U.S. assets are increasing some three times faster than what we –as a nation - are producing.  A society cannot consume and not produce.
 
Closer to home, more “harrowing” calculations, to wit:
 
Since the advent of Act 60, in 1997, through and in 2007 inflation-adjusted dollars, total Vermont state spending grew 97%; Vermont median household income grew 8.7%; Vermont state and local government job growth grew 17%; and Vermont private-sector job growth grew 7.5% (through June of 2010, this number shrinks to just .6%, meaning that Vermont employs the same number of private-sector employees as it did in 1997, or some 13 years ago).
 
In the fall of 2007, I founded “Vermonters for Economic Heath” and began a series of “Town Meeting Forums” to discuss the facts of Vermont and our nation’s economic health.
 
On our original web-site – in 2007 - were these words:
 
"In The Gathering Storm, Winston Churchill’s stated purpose was “to show how easily the tragedy of the Second World War could have been prevented.”  In Churchill’s time – as now - a storm was brewing but “people were viewing it and not doing anything.”
 
Again, I ask:

Are any of Vermont’s Gubernatorial candidates – or for that matter, any Vermont candidate running for this coming November’s election - really listening?

Do they really understand?

 
 

Comments

[Guido]

Your VT statistics begin with "Since the advent of Act 60", which implies that the stats are somehow related to education. My understanding is that over the last 5 yrs state (non-education) and municipal budgets have increase much faster than education.

[G. Cross]

Guido, there are at least two sets of facts; 1) those that support the positions of the typical poster on this site and are thus front and center in most posts, and 2) those that tend to explain why the typical position posted on this site may be off-track and they are never referenced. Blogs, regardless of their claims otherwise, are seldom nonpartisan and unbiased. However they are still fun reads to learn about the latest distribution of information termed as fact.

[Tom Licata]

Guido, you are correct.

George, you are just insufferable.

Guido, the statistics are “somehow related to education,” though, the use of the words “somehow related” would be classified as an understatement, considering the fact that education spending accounts for some 35% of Vermont’s total state spending.

George, “there are at least two sets of facts”: 1) between the years 1999 – 2010, total state spending - which includes education spending - grew 149%., and 2) between these same years of 1999 - 2010, total education spending – on its own – grew 241%.

Education spending has been the tail wagging this dog.

Vermont faces a fiscal year 2012 Education Fund shortfall of between $60 - $100 million, according to a Legislator's study and Governor Douglas. Vermont also faces a fiscal year 2012 – 2014 General Fund shortfall of at least $313 million, according to the Joint Fiscal Office. Vermont’s unfunded liabilities for its pension and medical promises are some $2 billion.

The U.S. Government will borrow nearly $1.5 trillion this fiscal year as well as another $1.5 trillion in its next fiscal year.
Its debt to GDP ratio is nearly at 100%; a level that sends off the kind of alarm signals we have witnessed in countries such as Greece.

Vermont receives some 33% of its total budget from the federal government. In addition, it receives tens of millions of dollars – if not more – from the federal government in the form of various grants, tax credits and loan subsides…often at the behest of our three congressional delegates; a.k.a. ‘The Three Santa Claus’s.”

George, et al., do you really believe the U.S. government can continue its current spending trajectory?

All those millions from the federal government for our Lake Champlain Clean Up Fund…were all borrowed; debt financed with half coming from foreigners, such as the Chinese

George, Guido, et al., clearly you are not listening.

Clearly, you do not understand.

Gradually,…and then suddenly.

[AM]

Guido asked an important question -- I don't think that's not listening. (It's the opposite, in fact.)

It's easy for anyone to get their facts mistaken, especially when info comes at us from the full on fire hydrant called the Internet.

And in his defense, George's surmises are essentially correct - this blog, like every one ever created has a bias.

However, I do believe this blog is as non-partisan as is humanly possible. I've posted comments that not the Republican party line and have not really gotten any notice/flack.

However, why George continues to read something he thinks lives in la-la is beyond me -- I don't read the NEA daily outputs for "fun". I can think of all sorts activities that are heck of alot more enjoyable than hanging out with people that I think are fabricating their reality.

[G. Cross]

So Tom, Guido is correct when he states, "My understanding is that over the last 5 yrs state (non-education) and municipal budgets have increase much faster than education." Does this not suggest that Act 60/68 is actually working? Coupled with the latest wrinkle, the Commissioner's arbitrary recommendations for additional cuts in school budgets, we seem to have education spending under better control than all other spending.

[G. Cross]

AM, just trying to be knowledgeable about the diverse opinions of the many.

[-Dennis Steele]

I am the only candidate that gets it! I just got back from a debate and brought your points up on almost all of the questions. I get it! My site is http://www.governorsteele.com
I am an Independent running for governor. Vermont's pro-rata share of the U.S. Defense budget each year is 1.5 billion dollars. What could Vermont do with that money?

[David G]

If anyone is listening, we have to cut spending now.

End all defined retirement benefit plans for all new hire government employees including teachers.

Consolidate school districts to the county level so that every county has one school district.

If we want to do something green we can time the stop lights.