Election Thoughts

No Cakewalk for Democrats
by
Angelo S. Lynn

Now that Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie has announced his intentions to run for governor, the state’s political landscape has become a lot clearer  — and that landscape might pose a surprisingly stiff challenge for Democrats to take back the governor’s seat.

Consider that Dubie fits that classic all-American persona — a physically fit man who is a commercial pilot with a military background, former school board chairman of one of the state’s largest towns (Essex Junction), and a politician with seven years experience as backup to the governor.  Now, pair Dubie with businessman Mark Snelling who has a good chance of becoming the party’s candidate for lieutenant governor. Snelling is a successful Shelburne businessman, an inventive entrepreneur at a time when job creation and economic development is one of the state’s top priorities, and who has one of the most recognizable political names in the state.

While the two positions are not coupled in Vermont, it would be a natural fit to see Dubie and Snelling campaigning together and striking a pretty telegenic pose — and they would likely be campaigning without a primary opponent uttering a negative word about either candidate.

The Democrats, on the other hand, are preparing for a primary slugfest with what is likely to be at least five well-known candidates. Already in the race are Secretary of State Deb Markowitz, state senator and former Lt. Gov. Doug Racine and Sen. Susan Bartlett. Sources also say that Senate President Pro Tempore Peter Shumlin will soon join the race, while former Sen. Matt Dunne might as well.

Three things are likely to happen. First, because primaries attract support from the most ardent of the party faithful that pushes these Democratic candidates to court political left for much of the next year. Second, it’s likely that the winner will not only muster less than 25 percent of the vote, but will likely be pretty-well bruised and battered in the process — with a lot of unkind things said about each of the candidates. Third, the Democrat(s) running for lieutenant governor will be completely overshadowed by the governor’s race.

When the primary battle ends in late summer, the party will be expected to resurrect the winning Democratic candidate, raise lots of money (from the supporters of the four losers as well — good luck with that) for the general election, and move their candidate toward the political middle (oh, and promote the forgotten lieutenant governor candidate) with just three months remaining against two all-American, pro-business Republicans who will have pitched themselves as political moderates.

Democrats who think policy differences between the two parties are going to carry the day for them, might do a little role-playing to imagine how this political theater might be played out on the real stage.

Our hunch is that it won’t be the cakewalk Democrats thought it would be just a few weeks ago.

(Angelo S. Lynn is editor & publisher of the Addison Independent where this essay first appeared.)

Comments

[Tom Licata]

A cakewalk is a strutting dance based on a march that was performed in minstrel shows.

Minstrel shows were an American form of entertainment consisting not only of dance, but of comic skits and variety acts, as well.

My hunch is that it will be the calkwalk we all thought it would be just a few weeks ago.

[Chris Campion]

The Republican candidates need to identify the Democratic party with the death of economic growth that has occurred for the past 10 years. They should highlight every Democrat who override Douglas' budget veto, because essentially the Democrats were saying "Hey, this budget is fiscally responsible", while Douglas was not. Those legislators need to be held accountable for their votes, and their lack of action on the most pressing issue facing literally every Vermonter - economic growth.

Until there are Democrats willing to re-structure tax and permitting policy in this state, nothing will change, and we'll continue to churn in the quicksand of negative job growth for another decade. Vermonters can't afford to be naive about what's happened to their state, and their fellow Vermonters, any more.

[aynerand]

It is a very early positive sign that Brian Dubie's strengths, and the issues the democrats face, have been identified by both of the Lynn brothers, who encompass the political spectrum of VT. Interesting.