Gaffe?

Tom Salmon Jr.'s statement on unemployment insurance has some people wondering if he is ready – after dramatically changing parties (he was a Democrat) – for political prime time. 

"We need to make some very brave decisions and we need to make them soon," Salmon said on Wednesday, when reached at his Montpelier office. "Reducing the maximum benefit check to $300 puts us in line with states like Missouri, Nebraska and South Dakota."

Even some of Salmon's supporters are saying that this is a "gaffe" as Michael Kinsley famously defined the term.   That is, a statement made by a politician that is factually accurate but politically indiscreet.

One wonders, though, if the conventional wisdom might be wrong on this one.  It wouldn't be the first time.
Vermont, as Art Woolf points out here (and as he, and the rest of us at Vermont Tiger have been saying for some time now) is facing an economic catastrophe.  The recent ordeal of finding $7.5 million in cuts to the state's payroll makes clear just how difficult it is to find any savings on the spending side of the balance sheet.  Which leaves us looking at the revenue side and, inevitably, the kind of tax hikes necessary to make up shortfalls that make $7.5 million look like pocket change.

Voters will eventually come to understand the magnitude of the problem.  When they do, they will likely feel an appreciation for leaders who didn't sugar coat it and were willing to commit the occasional "gaffe," as opposed to politicians who ignored the problem or denied it even existed.

So Salmon's statement, which looks like a blunder in the short run, could be a piece of inspired long-run political strategy.

Whether or not he was making those kind of calculations, Salmon has done the state a favor.  If his statement was a "gaffe," then we could use many more of them.

Comments

[Chris Campion]

There's a school of political thought out there that shies away from stating the facts, or the realities - because often these are the things that will not get you re-elected. For a fantastic example of the successful politician who pursues this strategy, see Sen. Sanders (S-NY). Salmon's statement could be softened with words like "potentially", or "conceivably". The reality his comments reflect is much, much larger. An economic landslide is tumbling down the hill towards our little VT hamlet, and there are those who would whistle down Main St., hoping it'll just magically stop on its own, or their Old Uncle Sam will somehow erect a wall to save them at the last minute.

The whistlers are the Legislature. When the wheels really come off next year, and successive years, many of those who chose inaction in the preceding years will no longer be "serving" in the legislature, and those that still are will be spending a great deal of time blaming prior administrations for our economic woes.

What I'm hoping to see are the porch lights coming on in the heads of our elected leadership, with the lights representing a call to reality. You cannot fund the budget with air - it takes tax revenues. Tax revenues only come from people and businesses earning money, and profits - it's that simple. In a state with one of the highest non-profit to for-profit ratios in the country, it's not a small wonder why we're staring at the bad end of the revenues stick right now.

The real shame is that none of this needed to happen, had we elected representatives that were truly interested in bettering the lives of Vermonters in years and decades past. We're simply going to be left with fixing the problems they chose to ignore.

[James Ehlers]

The more appropriate question is not whether Salmon is ready, but rather are we ready for the real numbers. Hard discussions need to be had, and they need to be had now. I, for one, am appreciative for the leadership demonstrated by Salmon. The only gaffe will be the one committed by us were we to penalize the elected official who is actually honest with us. We get the politicians we deserve.

Sincerely,
James Ehlers
Colchester

[Hugh Kemper]

Ditto Campion and Ditto Ehlers

[Glenn Eno]

Very nice comments here everyone.

Without people working there are less tax dollars available. The weekly dollar amount is lower than other New England states. The cost of living in Vermont is high, probably higher than some of the other 300.00 per week states. The thing that concerns me the most is the longevity of the UI claims. People are going to be out of work longer than any recent recessions. This is going to be a huge burden on the UI fund. I'm not sure the federal government's offer of interest free loans to state UI funds will be the answer. Jobs, not government jobs, are needed to stave off the coming crisis.

I don't think we've reached the bottom yet regardless of what the Obama administration tells us. My opinion is that as long as we continue to see bandaids placed on our economy we have not started a recovery. Even when the economy finally stands on it's own there will still be a period, the lagging job indicator if you will, before employment numbers improve.