Vermont Tiger

The Economics of Green Math

With all the talk about “green” jobs, and a sense of near-panic in the calls to immediately implement green economies, there’s been little talk about what impacts a “green” economy might really have once the rubber meets the road (or the tofu hits the solar panel, if you will).  There’s a great deal of data on this available, if our elected leadership chooses to look at it.  Spain, for instance, has long been touted as an example of a robust “green” economy, yet the data shows that, at least in Spain, the green economy costs more jobs than it creates.  In this study, it’s estimated that for every 4 jobs created, 9 will be lost.  This new Green Math simply doesn't add up.

This goes back to the flawed assumption that all spending is equal; that when a government spends money (through subsidies, grants, what have you) that the economic benefit is exactly the same as if the private sector had invested that money.  This is so patently absurd to be laughable, yet it is still how much of the public sector operates.  In the Obama administration, as well as much of Vermont’s legislature, this economic thoughtcrime is an unshakeable belief.  We will suffer the consequences of these policies for decades to come – and if there’s doubt of the efficacy of governments to do anything well, other than collect taxes and wage war, take a look at any of the HUD project leftovers from the 60’s and 70’s, before we start endorsing the additional spending of trillions.

What Do They Talk About?

The discussions have begun.  Behind closed doors, of course.  Where else?  This is modern government. 

Governor Douglas is optimistic.  He believes that the negotiations will, in roughly one week's time,  produce a budget that the legislature can approve and he can sign. 

That is what passes for good news in the state of Vermont these days.  The fact of a budget is sufficient.  Never mind the details.

Emerson Lynn On Politics

To the Legislature:
Stay, get job done

Let’s not feign surprise that the state’s revenues are in decline.  It was predicted. Before the Legislative session convened, legislators were warned that the budget would need to be cut, that the pain would be considerable, and that the need could not be camouflaged through political sleight of hand.

What was predicted in January was confirmed by the latest revenue forecast: the state will find its coffers about $40 million short for the next fiscal year. That has legislators atwitter. We are two weeks from the scheduled end of the session and, as the legislators claim, much of the work on the budget has been completed and the drop in revenue makes it clear their work is unfinished.

What to do?

What's in a Word?

Headline in the Burlington Free Press:

Most in Vermont Still Cannot Buy a Home

To paraphrase Bill Clinton, it depends on the definition of "most".   If most cannot buy a home, then how can it be that 75% of Vermont households actually own a home?  

The article reports on an annual report by the Vermont Housing Awareness Campaign called A Rock and a Hard Place.  Nowhere in that report is the actual homeownership rate mentioned.    And despite the gloomy nature of the report (bad news helps to translate into more government money), nowhere does it mention that the actual homeownership rate in Vermont has increased and is one of the highest in the nation.  (Correction:  The report does mention Vermont's homeownership rate, although not our high ranking.)

The impact of falling, and low, mortgage rates over the past five years is hardly mentioned at all.  And falling mortgage rates have done more than any government housing program to promote housing affordability and homeownership (which has been improving for decades).

PJ

Being PJ.

The worst thing in politics is bi-partisan consensus. Bi-partisan consensus. That's like when my doctor and my lawyer agree with my wife that I need help.

The world gets rid of George W Bush and everything is wonderful. You may have noticed - peace in Afghanistan, love in Iraq, the Dow Jones average is back over 10,000.

Until Iceland had melted down, I don't think I had any idea it had gotten that rich.

Oh. So That's Why They Cost So Much

"Schools are community centers; schools are where we do democracy in a small state." 

    Angelo Dorta: President, Vermont NEA

Storm Warnings Ignored

It has been nearly two years since I founded Vermonters for Economic Health and I began a series of "Town Meeting Forums" throughout Vermont.  Using the format of a PowerPoint presentation - found at www.vteh.org - many of the economic statistics, challenges and warnings outlined at these “Town Meeting Forums” have come home to roost.  Vermont’s entire legislature was invited.  A few showed up.  All were given access to the presentation.

The sense of urgency and concern that propelled my efforts has faded into a kind of cynical satisfaction, as I witness the flailing among Vermont's political class and its enabling media.  Hubris exacts its price.

Kemper Report: The TV Series

Hugh Kemper's exhaustive, detailed, and intelligent study of education and its funding in Vermont made its debut on this site almost two years ago.  Since then, Kemper has refined and expanded his research and been summoned to Montpelier to serve on a Governor's task force looking into ways that Vermont can reform the system.  A mission that, needless to say, has taken on a greater sense of urgency in recent weeks and days.

Meanwhile, Kemper has made it to the small screen.  This excellent Manchester Journal story explains not only how Kemper's work has been "discovered" but, also, the roots of the the Act 60/68 controversy and how local access cable television can drive the policy debate in Vermont.

May the show be a great rating success resulting in wide syndication.

No Surprise?

“This is a disappointment. It is not a surprise.”
    Senator Peter Shumlin

Not a surprise?  Then can we logically assume that legislators were expecting the bad news last Friday? And since they were anticipating it, then they had been preparing for it, right?  So, naturally, they would have a plan.  If they were not surprised and didn't have a plan, that would be irresponsible, at best.  And you could even use words like "dereliction."

The evidence, of course, suggests that they were not prepared.  And they plainly do not have a plan for a decline in revenues that the economist who delivered the bad news called "breathtaking."

The Education Conversation (Part 5)

(This is the concluding conversation in a series of interviews with Hugh Kemper covering his research and recommendations regarding K-12 education in Vermont and its financing.  Kemper will not, however, be going away.  Which is good news for Vermont since the state's finances have reached a crisis point and, as he and others have been pointing out, no solution is possible without serious reforms in how much we pay for education and how we raise the money.)

VT: Hugh, we’ve now addressed the four core initiatives that underlie the proposed streamlining and reorganization of K-12 staffing on a more cost-effective basis; specifically, (1) the State’s assumption of Special Education, (2) the establishment of statewide resource parameters by function and purpose, (3) the provision of on-call consultancy support to local school boards and principals and (4) the standardization at the State level of teacher and support staff contracts. This could sound and feel like a state takeover of K-12 education. How does the issue of local control fit into all of this?