Vermont Tiger

New Year; Old Truths

The Year of the Nobodies
by
Jack Harding

I always look forward to the down time between Christmas and New Year’s with the paradoxical zeal of the vacationing workaholic.  It is both a time to catch one’s breath and, in those undisturbed moments, contemplate the attack plan for the coming year.  My reflections drift between a nostalgic and often wishful revisionist view of the past year while I attempt to convert lessons-learned into an incrementally wiser and more effective action plan.

This week has been no different, at least, in terms of the process.  However, I must admit that for the first time in memory the output had been disappointing to the point of frustration until I accepted the obvious; 2009 is teed up to be a “hope it doesn’t get much worse” kinda year. 

Mere parity with ‘08 might be a huge success.  We face further uncertainty in our markets, our elected officials’ personal behavior (including rewarding themselves with immoral raises), their policies nationally and locally, the survival of American-institution industries (whether you want them to or not) and, most importantly, the illusive but most relevant with hindsight….not knowing what we don’t know. It is going to get worse before it gets better.

Prophet Without Honor

Peter Schiff saw it coming.  Was sneered and laughed at for his naivete by such worthies as Arthur Laffer and Ben Stein.  Too bad we didn't listen then.

Even worse, and less excusable, if we fail to listen to him now.

The fundamentals do not change.  They are merely obscured.  Schiff cuts nicely through the weeds of cant and fancy new formulations to get at truths we'd all just as soon ignore:

... these ideas hold sway largely because they promise happy, pain-free solutions. They are the economic equivalent of miracle weight-loss programs that require no dieting or exercise. The theories permit economists to claim mystic wisdom, governments to pretend that they have the power to dispel hardship with the whir of a printing press, and voters to believe that they can have recovery without sacrifice.

Mr. Schiff was right before and we expect that he is right again.  Whether we like it or not.

Rethink and Retool

Vermont Democrats Should Embrace Obama's Slogan

by

John McClaughry

In July of 1995 William Sorrell, Administration Secretary for Gov. Howard Dean, released a list of 59 "cost-shrinking ideas" for state government, to meet that year's fiscal crunch. The great majority of them proved to be pious hopes unsupported by analysis, schemes for reshuffling bureaucracies, and earnest entreaties to "promote efficiencies." Few, if any, were ever implemented, but somehow Vermont made it through 1996.

Now, fourteen years later, the Governor and legislators are facing a total of $66 million in General Fund reductions to meet expected revenue shortfalls in Fiscal Year 2009, with upwards of $176 million more necessary for FY 2010.

Mail Call

Tax Commissioner Tom Pelham was due in court today.  He is being sued by the School Boards Association for his failure to recommend a specific tax rate in a December 1st letter to the legislature.  Pelham recommended flexibility in setting tax rates, given the state's current economic situation.  This was a technical violation of the law and, more importantly, a signal to some that the administration was about to "raid the ed-fund."  

Pelham has since sent this letter to the legislature, in order to stay within technical compliance with the law. In this letter, he lays out the state's present financial condition and how it relates to education spending about as plainly as it can be done. 

And, so, the machinery of Act 60 grinds on.

(ed. note:  This item appeared briefly, in early draft form, with different language and an incorrect link.  We apologize for the error.)

That Old Alibi

Curt Hier on unfunded mandates.

Surprise?

Oh my, the state found a form of business that has thus far escaped regulation. The horrors of a property owner turning a profit without paying their alms to the government and bowing in respect to the mighty Gia. 

Political Polarization in Vermont

Big Bag of Wind .Com has a post this morning about how "vitriolic, partisan hack politics" developed in our country.  It blames it on two phenomena.  First, special interests, with their insistence on perfect voting records and their soft money with which to attack opponents.   And second, the advent of blogs, where  “millions engage in rapid-fire discourse at two arm lengths away.”

These phenomena are having a similar effect in our own little state.  Partisan politics dominates here.  And our tiny political world is almost completely polarized, despite 44 percent of Vermonters identifying as moderate in a recent poll.

Pot, Meet Kettle

The government tells citizens that they are too fat.  Andy Ferguson's take is, as usual, both funny and wise.

The Other Side Of The Bridge

Vermont, New Hampshire, and that little matter of taxation.

And, then, there is another view.  From this side of the bridge.

Special Ed (cont.)

Curt Hier has an op-ed in today's Freeps.  The piece sums up the conclusions of his detailed report which you can find here.  Hier continues doing serious work on a serious subject and his report deserves wide and thoughtful attention.