"WCAX Shows Stagnant Reporting"

Well, that's not exactly the headline WCAX ran. They actually ran a headline yesterday that said "Census Shows Stagnant Vermont Growth." This is, of course, something we already know. However, the lead paragraph suggests there is new information to add to the mix:

"New estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau show that more people are leaving Vermont than moving into the state. There's nothing really new there, but the decline is steeper than earlier estimates."

Humm, new estimates. When I read that I thought I'd go back and update a post I wrote in March that showed the rate of population change and how it's increasing. However, when I looked at the "new estimates from the US Census Bureau" I found the same old estimates I worked from back in March - which were themselves published in December, 2007. Way to stay on top of things, WCAX.

Comments

[Peter Martin]

The post is a bit harsh on WCAX and the reporter who did the story.

It was new data, released on July 10th, which updated figures released by the Census Bureau in the spring. See the below from the Vermont State Data Center at UVM:

"From: Vermont Census Data Contacts [mailto:VTSDC@list.uvm.edu] On Behalf Of Will Sawyer
Sent: Thursday, July 10, 2008 8:19 AM
To: VTSDC@LIST.UVM.EDU
Subject: 2000 - 2007 annual population estimates for Vermont's towns, cities, villages

Greetings,

Today the U.S. Census Bureau released the 2000 - 2007 population estimates for towns, cities and villages in Vermont. You can download the data from our website at http://crs.uvm.edu/census/estimates/town

As is normally the case, these numbers include adjustments to previous
estimates releases...What has changed in these numbers? Well, in the spring, when the 2000-2007 county estimates were released, we noticed that the Census
Bureau had adjusted the 2000-2006 population trend of the state to a smaller overall increase, with more drastic decreases in the state's southern counties. An analysis of the components of the estimates show that the Census Bureau is measuring a net decrease in domestic migration
for Vermont, especially the southern counties. But this is offset statewide by a net gain in international migration, focusing on northwestern Vermont. As for natural increase, statewide the Census Bureau is seeing more births than deaths over the 7 year period, except in the southern counties..."

A smaller increase in the state's population and a "more drastic" decrease in the southern counties, as well as slower migration into the southern counties, than had previously been estimated would seem to be newsworthy on a number of levels. It certainly caught the attention of WCAX News. The Vermont State Data Center is believed to be a competent, credible source.

WCAX reported March 20th, though briefly, on the March estimates of slow population growth overall and the population decline in the southern counties. The July estimates suggest that the trend is real and accelerating. That is newsworthy by any standard.