We've referenced Off The Rails many times here at VT. For those of you who have not read it, the short version is that given the changing demographics of Vermont, and the likely future path of state revenues and expenditures resulting from those demographic changes, Vermont will either have a far higher tax burden than the state has ever experienced or we will have to make significant changes in our spending and spending priorities.
The U.S. faces similar problems due to promises the government has made, promises that essentially force future taxpayers to do things they never had a chance to vote on. Gene Steuerle, senior fellow at the non partisan Urban Institute, very clearly outlines the problem:
Never before in U.S. history have so many promises been made to so many people for so many years into the future. Every additional promise, no matter what its merit, only attempts to tie that fiscal straightjacket tighter around future voters....In a little more than a decade, we'll likely have around $1 trillion more in annual revenues, yet under current law almost all of that growth will have been pre-allocated without so much as a nod from the existing or future Congresses.
And this is something very new, and very different, for the U.S.:
...in most of the 200-plus years since the American republic was founded, most spending and tax debates were over projects of the day. They weren't about controlling what government priorities would be in 50 years. Whether worthwhile or horrible, precedent-setting or routine, new laws and programs weren't designed to predetermine government's direction for decades to come.
Can we expect this year's presidential candidates to focus on this? Don't bet on it, although Ross Perot is again trying to bring attention to the issue, just as he did in 1992 (although this time without running for president).
(h/t Andrew Samwick)
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