It is early and so we hear the usual bromides:
"I am going to work hard, as I have in the past, to find common ground," the governor said.
"We agree on a lot of major priorities," Shumlin said. "I think he is going to find a Legislature willing to work with him to get the job done."
Sure.
Meanwhile, back on planet Montpelier, real life will again prevail. Water will not run uphill and Chuck Norris will not become a pacifist. Still, to borrow some ecclesiastical language: Things that should be done, will not be done; and things that should not be done, will be done.
Already, Senator Peter Shumlin -- arguably the most powerful Democrat in a heavily Democratic legislature -- is saying that there is no hope for property tax relief or reform of the way the state funds education.
"We would love to make progress on property tax. The fact is that there is no one walking around this building with a bill in their hand that says this is the solution and usually when no one has a solution in their hand it's hard to fix the problem."
Which is a little perplexing. Aren't he and the other legislators elected to come up with those ideas? Aren't they in the business of finding solutions to the citizens' problems? And one would confidently wager that if you polled the citizenry, you'd find property taxes and education funding near the top of the list of taxpayer worries. Ahead, perhaps, of global warming (imagine) or campaign finance reform (incredible).
Those things will be in play, just as they were last year. And there will be other items on the agenda, to include an attempt at making medical insurance "more affordable" for small businesses. Like a lot of things in Vermont, it isn't affordable now and anything the legislature does to make it "more" so is likely to trigger the law of unintended consequences and make private insurance in this state the most expensive item in many Vermonters' budgets. Consider just this one paragraph from a Wall Street Journal editorial (the item, itself, is available only to subscribers and is even more depressing than the excerpt):
In most states, (but not New York and Vermont), young adults who buy health insurance are charged premiums that reflect their low medical needs. A 25-year-old man can buy a $1,000 deductible policy for a quarter to a third of what a 55-year-old man has to pay. (In Manchester, N.H., a 25-year-old man pays $156 per month, while a 55-year-old pays $542 for the same policy, according to ehealthinsurance.com).
Shumlin and Speaker of the House, Gaye Symington have pledged a new program that will reduce medical insurance premiums by 25% and reimburse hospitals at nearly full cost. So perhaps Montpelier can make water run uphill.
It will, at least, be interesting to watch them try.
Meanwhile, we asked three of our major contributors to tell us what they think the legislature should -- and will -- do this session:
Curtis Hier: While Vermonters are still interested in
education cost containment and always interested in education quality,
both may be dead issues in the Legislature this year.
Democrats
may very well be content to sit on their “achievements” of last year
and think that Act 82 will make education concerns go away for a
while. The controversial “two-votes” provision is not going to be
particularly burdensome -- and likewise not particularly effective in
containing costs. The Legislature has created the illusion of “doing
something” about costs without forcing what would be perceived to be
devastating cuts for which they would inevitably be blamed.
It’s
possible the Democratic leadership may want to tinker with the
less-talked-about provisions of Act 82, but it’s just as likely that
they will leave the law alone, despite enormous pressure from
Vermont-NEA.
Republicans would do well to try to keep education
issues alive. The bill allowing voting on supervisory unions makes a
lot of sense, as does expanding public high school choice, as
recommended by Commissioner Cate.
Commissioner Cate’s proposal
for consolidating school districts is a divisive issue likely to go
nowhere. Small towns don’t want to do it. And politicians in
Montpelier don’t seem to have the stomach to impose it.
Property
tax “relief” will be offered by Democrats in the form of a shift to
income tax. It won’t address costs, but at the very least, the
Democratic leadership will make it seem (to the unsophisticated anyway)
that they care about property tax burdens. While some Democrats hope
it will force a veto showdown with the Governor, my prediction is that
it won’t survive a floor vote.
Real policy-making will take a backseat to political posturing this year, as it mostly did last year.
Greg Decker: Like Curt, I also feel the session will amount to little in the way of productive legal change. However, I predict the year to bring monumental political changes.
The Democrats will continue to focus on the energy/climate issue with an opening salvo against Yankee. As the scientific evidence mounts against their chicken little position they'll become more shrill and radical. Without recognizing how ridiculous they've become, they'll continue on this path until they've alienated most of their base. As issues are put to the people/media the left will find it has little wind behind its sails this year. History will remember 2008 as the year the Democratic party fell apart. People want change and with the election they will make it.
The Republicans will have to work hard this year to keep the left in check. As public opinion shifts against the left they will try to pass ever more ridiculous laws in desperation. The Right will need to be in full attendance at all times to thwart them. Because its an election year, I expect this will be impossible so we should be prepared for some surprises.
This prediction is based in part form observing the shift to the right in unlikely places like Canada and France. If old socialists can see the light so can Vermonter's - I hope.
Art Woolf: The state's roads and bridges are in terrible shape. The judiciary and public defendner's office is short staffed due to lack of resources. We're not sure where the revenues are going to come from for the health care programs we've enacted. Lake Champlain has some serious water quality problems. The state's telecommunications infrastructure is woefully inadequate.
What will the legislature do this year?
Focus on global warming legislation, where anything they do will have absolutely no impact on global carbon emissions or temperatures. But it will cost Vermonters money.
Throw a bone at the roads and bridges problem, and while they're at it, fund a few more bike paths for the handful Vermonters who commute to work on bicycles. (But they'll sell this as a transportation project, not a recreation one.)
Give short shrift to the state police and judiciary's needs.
Give state money to farmers to help them pay for water quality improvement projects. Consider tougher new water quality regulations forcing municipal waste water treatment plants to reduce phosphorus loadings. But don't give them any money to do it.
Try to force telecommunications companies to provide more high speed internet access, but ignore the costs of doing this.
Play musical chairs with education funding sources by seriously considering an education income tax to replace the residential property tax.
At the end of the session, cross their fingers and hope they have enough money to pay for everything given the coming economic slowdown. Then get out of Montpelier fast, and hope that the November election comes before the fiscal mess of 2008-09 is too evident.
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